BTC holds $48K as Evergrande forms ‘Lehman Brothers moment’ for China

Market Analysis

Bitcoin (BTC) cautiously held $48,000 on Sept. 16 as excitement brewed over a boost thanks to China seeing its “Lehman Brothers moment.” 

BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView

Tether exec reassures on Evergrande

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD trading near the $48,000 mark Thursday.

While progress towards $50,000 was less decisive, analysts were broadly hopeful that a debt crisis at China’s second-largest real estate developer would provide much needed confidence.

Evergrande Real Estate Group (3333.HK) suspended bond trading Thursday, the latest episode in a saga which saw the giant receive multiple ratings cuts.

With $300 billion at stake, comparisons to the 2008 Global Financial Crisis were quick to emerge.

“China’s Lehman moment. The money printing will be massive, I repeat MASSIVE!” PlanB, creator of the stock-to-flow family of Bitcoin price models, told Twitter followers.

“This is good for Bitcoin.”

PlanB was referring to a potential government bailout of Evergrande or the wider-reaching implications of its meltdown, which various sources warn could hit multiple sectors of the economy both inside and outside Beijing’s jurisdiction.

Money printing on a huge scale by central banks previously provided the overture to Bitcoin’s dramatic run-up from lows near $3,000 in March 2020 to all-time highs of $64,500 just over a year later.

Evergrande’s stock traded at 2.63 Hong Kong dollars (HKD) at the close of trading in Hong Kong Thursday, down from 5.26 HKD at the start of July. At its peak in 2017, it traded above 30 HKD.

3333.HK/USD 1-day candle chart. Source: TradingView

Largest U.S. dollar stablecoin issuer Tether meanwhile publicly confirmed that it had no exposure to the brewing crisis.

Cautious optimism on BTC spot

Bitcoin itself showed tentative strength on the day, preserving $48,000 by a hair and with it staying above key moving averages on the daily chart.

Related: Bitcoin bulls look to profit from Friday’s $195M BTC options expiry

The cryptocurrency saw a golden cross event this week, its second since August, fuelling hopes that Q4 would in and of itself provide a bull run to a new all-time high.

September, with its predicted “worst case scenario” monthly close of $43,000, should then give way to a minimum $63,000 in October, PlanB previously forecast.

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